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The Coming Age
Take design cues from the natural world.





Photo by © James W. Porter/CORBIS
Let's begin with the requisite disclaimer. As everyone knows, it is impossible to predict the future. Who in 1900--the age of the Imperial Style in the redevelopment of London's Regent Street--would have predicted the role of totalitarian dictators in the twentieth century? Or Cubism, which was right around the corner? Or Frank Gehry (although the Cubists might have foreseen him)? Or much of anything else that actually happened? My thoughts on the twenty-first century are therefore random and inconsequential. I ardently deny any attempt to sketch a plausible scenario.

The world of design is only part of a larger world, and the two biggest changes I can make out, in this temporal fog I'm trying to peer into, have little to do directly with design. One is biological, and the other is planetary.

The revolution in biology is going to change the world radically. Genetic manipulation of our species is, I think, inevitable. We will be redesigning the human being. We will be selecting for personality, physical form, and talent. Perhaps we'll get rid of congenital disease. Perhaps we'll get rid of Saddam Hussein personalities. We may create a blander, smarter, safer, handsomer, saner, more predictable, and less interesting human world. Or a world of specialists, each a genius at one thing. Who knows, maybe somebody will clone Saddam Husseins. It's an open game at this point. I'm not sure it won't be a better world. And maybe there will be a major role for designers in it. And a new specialty: homomorphology.

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The decline of our planet as a life-support system is already, of course, well under way. E. O. Wilson's recent book The Future of Life belongs on the classics shelf along with those by Jane Jacobs and Rachel Carson. It documents the free-for-all genocide being carried out by humans against other species--both plant and animal--as we rupture their habitats, consume the resources they need, change their climates, and generally elbow them out of existence. It makes the case that we human beings will suffer greatly from the coming loss of biodiversity. To read Wilson is to be struck with a terrifying image, though he doesn't suggest it: human beings as cancer cells, multiplying and spreading rapidly through our host organism, which is Earth. Wilson believes there is still a chance to preserve an acceptable planet if we act soon. Maybe when Venice disappears, which I predict will happen before midcentury, a warning gong will strike. It isn't so much individual buildings as it is uncontrolled settlement patterns that are eating up the Earth. Designers and architects are well placed to understand the issues.

Of course, there are some less apocalyptic trends: billboard buildings, for example. These are buildings that broadcast their values directly and changeably. Their facades are electronic displays instead of more durable architectural motifs. They are already among us. Robert Venturi has been arguing for years that architecture, in the tectonic sense, is dead, and that the future belongs to the digital facade. I'm sure it will be a major trend, but I doubt it'll take over as he suggests.

Already we are in a state of reaction, numbed by a world that has ceased to be tactile or material and has morphed into an endless stream of media screens. I think we'll see a second Arts and Crafts movement, directed this time not against industrialism but against the tyranny of media. An example is the truly desperate solid thingness of a building like Tod Williams and Billie Tsien's American Folk Art Museum. We're pining for the actual--although seeking to be authentic on purpose is a loser's game.

We'll also see, by way of contrast, more "environmentally responsible" buildings like the green buildings of Europe. They will become the legislated norm in developed countries. The truth is that individual buildings don't do much for a planet being suffocated by humanity's billions. Green buildings function more as signposts, as icons of intention, as visible statements of hope for an international economy that recycles rather than plunders the Earth's resources. But as such they're valuable.

The preservation movement will continue to mutate, as it has for many years now, from an effort to freeze the past into an understanding that the best way to preserve the values of the past is to invent a better present--since that was what people were trying to do in the past. At the other end of the spectrum, avant-gardism--the curse of the twentieth century--will finally begin to fade. To quote the recent New York Times obit for the great art historian E. H. Gombrich: "His discomfort with modernism was undeniable, and had to do with his disdain for novelty for its own sake. The modern era, he said, was unlike previous eras because it was ready to embrace whatever was new. In other words, art is not a race...'If anybody needs a champion today,' he once said, 'it is the artist who shuns rebellious gestures.'" Antiquarians and avant-gardists, in fact, have much in common. Both hope to bypass the present and replace it with something more desirable. But it's the present we should be living in and improving.

The language of architecture will continue to evolve, as does spoken language. But if spoken language evolves too quickly, it becomes unintelligible. It needs to maintain continuity with its tradition. So does architectural language, if we expect anyone to like or understand it. Forgive another quote, from the late Harvard philosopher Willard V. Quine: "We cannot stem linguistic change, but we can drag our feet."

The world--or the United States anyway--is becoming more diverse, with more ethnicities, more taste cultures, and less consensus than ever before. A powerful reaction against that diversity has begun, in the rise of fundamentalist religious groups, both here and elsewhere, that promote simple dogmas and provide their members with a sense of belonging to a community of shared belief. One wonders whether there will be a similar conservative reaction in architecture. Can people forever tolerate a world in which nobody agrees on what good design is? Can Robert Stern and Rem Koolhaas continue to be aesthetic leaders of the same profession? The world of Modernism, which thought itself so brave and revolutionary, looks like a safe harbor compared to the choppy seas of today's aesthetic battles. My guess is that this reaction won't happen. The world of competing and conflicting taste cultures, the world of the unedited range of human possibilities, will continue to flourish--at least until those genetic biologists get to work on us. I have no problem with that. Architecture can be done well in any manner, and buildings of the wildest formal discrepancy can jostle comfortably together on a good street, so long as they observe some commonalities of human scale. In that vein, a final quote, from the Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius:

"An empty pageant; a stage play; flocks of sheep, herds of cattle; a brawl of spearmen; a bone flung among a pack of dogs; a crumb tossed into a pond of fish; ants, loaded and laboring; mice, scared and scampering; puppets, jerking on their strings--that is life. In the midst of it all you must take your stand, good-temperedly and without disdain."
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